This is part 1.  A practical example is in part 2.

I've had a few people ask me how I go about planning hikes, and while I may think what I do is simple, I have been doing it for so long that I don't even think about all the steps that go into it, and there are a lot of small things that I probably will miss when writing this out.  But, I'll try.

The very first thing I think about is who is going, and what is the skill level of the group.  What this does is allows me to search my mind for hikes that would be appropriate for the group.  I can use my experience and past hikes in the areas to determine how difficult a hike will be, and then compare it to who I'm going with.  Now I'm often hiking with others that are going for the challenges that I'm going for.  Their skills and abilities are usually comparable or higher than mine.  That means I can push to my limits in the plans.  On the other end of things, I have hiked with people that are new to hiking, or live in flatlands and don't get into mountains often, if at all, and I have learned to expect their abilities to climb our mountains to be much less than they think they are, although they sometimes surprise me.  

One trip I did in college really sticks with me for judging someone's abilities by their previous experiences.  I was backpacking the high peaks  and one of our group was from Alaska.  She had plenty of experience in hiking in the mountains out there.  She had difficulty hiking in the high peaks.  Out west, the trails are newer, and as a result they tend to have things that make them easier to hike, specifically switchbacks.  They also tend to be less eroded as they're newer and in most cases, better laid out.  In the north east, our trails are old.  Many of them are the results of surveying, so they are straight up the mountain.  Switchbacks are rare to find.  All this leads to our trails being highly eroded and often small streams in wet weather.  It also means our trails are steeper per mile, and all that combined takes a toll on you when hiking.

So, once I get a handle on the experience of the group I'm leading, the general length of time and distance comes into play.  If we're going for a challenge hike, this is less of an issue as there's usually only a couple ways to do the hike.  If we're not going for a challenge though, this information is important.  I then go through my mental list of hikes that work for that experience level and duration, it is time to start thinking of destinations.  I will also consult guidebooks for ideas if we're going to an area I'm not as familiar with.  The local mountain club's guide books are usually worth their weight in gold.  As I put together destinations, I start looking at mileage and elevation. Ideally, each hike will have some kind of great view at some point along the way.  This is not always a mountain. It can be a lower ledge, it could be a lake.  It could just be this really cool blanket of moss.  

If you're going for your 46, a short hike will be under 10 miles.  A typical hike will be 10-15 for most peaks.  Some peaks will be longer than that, depending on your route, what other peaks you're getting, and if you're going to spend the night in the back-country.  I do hike with those not going for a challenge though, so easier hikes are needed.  That said, easier doesn't necessarily mean shorter.  2 of my go to hikes are 10+ miles, and yet they are what I would consider easy, and so far the people I've taken on them have been able to do them with little problem.

I now have a few options that we can look at.  I may try to go somewhere new for me to fit another challenge, or I may be repeating destinations, but want to try out a different route.  The process stays the same though.  I look at a map and I map them out.  Granted, this is much easier to do today than when I first started.  When I first started, it was all paper maps, you had a measuring tool or used a bit of string to measure your distance, you looked closely at the contour lines to see what the elevation sill be like.  Today it is all computers.  I map out the various routes I'm considering in my mapping software and take a look at 3 things:

• Mileage.
• Elevation gain and loss.
• Slope, specifically maximum slope up and down along with duration of the slope.

I then ask myself if my group can handle those 3 things.  Most new hikers focus on mileage.  I focus on slope more than anything else.  Yes, the slope is related to the elevation gain, but elevation gain by itself can be misleading.  A 10 mile hike with 1000 feet of elevation can be an easy hike if that 1000 feet is spread out over the whole 10 miles, it can be a moderate hike if it's all within 1 miles, and it can be a difficult hike if it's all within 1/2 a mile.  How quickly you climb/descend the elevation makes a huge difference.  Mileage is also important because some people will say they can't do more than X miles in a day, and I try to respect that.

To explain slope, it's rise over run.  So, a 10% slope will rise 100 feet for every 1000 feet of distance (1000 * 0.1 = 100).  Over a mile (5280 feet), you're rising roughly 530 feet/mile at 10%.  15% (790 feet/mile) is usually the maximum slope allowed for a road. Anything over 20% (1000 feet/mile) I consider to be steep, and for the mountains in the north east, that's the typical slope encountered for most climbs.  There are places that are steeper though.  My experience has shown me that 30+% slopes are usually rock scrambles, stairs, or ladders.  There are places with near vertical slope that are considered hiking trails.  The longer we're over 20% on the hike, the more difficult I consider the hike to be.

Ok, so I have a few different destinations and routes planned out.  I'll now start looking at the routes and considering contingencies of what we can do if we find this hike is not an appropriate difficulty.  How can I cut it short and still get some kind of viewpoint in?  What can I add to the hike to make it longer or more difficult?  Once I have all these ideas together, it's time to talk with the people I'm going with.  

I will go through each hike.  If I have the guide book, I'll read the entries to them  I will give them the options of things we can add on, and explain how we can cut things short.  I will give my honest opinion on how steep the trail looks to be, and if I have been on the trail before, what it is like from my experience.  We will discuss the options and come up with a plan that works for us, and a backup plan or two.  The backup plans are important in the height of the hiking season.  The parking area we want to start from may require a permit that we may not be able to get.  The trailhead parking may be full with no nearby legal parking.  Something else could happen like a rescue in progress and the trail is closed.  There are many reasons why a backup plan may be needed.  But we agree on what hike we want to do, and the backup plans.

That's not the end of the planning though.  We go over what will be required on the hike.  At minimum the 10 essentials on every person.  We will discuss an idea of how much water will be needed, and how we're going to purify water if we need more, if it's even going to be available (I would say most hikes don't have much water available once you start climbing).  What other specialized gear may be needed.  For winter hiking that's things like microspikes, snowshoes, crampons, and ice axes.  For summer hiking we're more likely to focus on rain gear, bug spray, and sunblock.  

Then we wait for the day to come.  I keep an eye on official notices for the area we plan to hike, and look out for things that may impact our hike.  Starting about 10 days before the hike, I start looking at weather.  Initially I'll look at the normal weather sites like weather undergroud, accuweather, weather channel.  I'll then get to the more specialized sites like mountain forecast and mountain point forecast (NOAA).  I am not only looking for weather the day of the hike, but I am looking to see what's happening the week before.  Weather events like rain or snow along with temperature can have a big impact on your planned hike.  If you're going to be hiking across a big stream/brook/river and not have a bridge available, you're not going to want to do that the first couple says after a rain storm.  If you're counting on the river to be frozen, you don't want to trust it will be after a week of 40 degree weather.  I will also keep an eye on the hiking forums to see what others are saying about the conditions in near real time.

So, to give you a real example, my next hike:

This is a 46er challenge hike where I need to Dix and Hough.  That is my goal, but I put it out to the hiking community that I'm going up and if anyone wants to join me, we can make an event of it.  I was honest in my personal goal was to get those 2 peaks.  When I mapped it out though, I saw that if I did those 2 or all 5 it would be essentially the same mileage (about 1/2 mile) and elevation gain (about 500 feet).  So, I put it out there that we can do the 2 or try for all 5.  I had people say they're interested, so I set up the event.  I first am honest with my personal pace, and to expect the hike to be a slow to moderate pace.  I planned it out with contingencies and explain them.  The whole hike if we hit all 5 peaks would be 16 miles, 5500 feet.  If we skip Macomb, it would be 14.3 miles, 4400 feet.  If we just did Hough and back, that's 15.4 miles, 4900 feet.  If we skip Hough and get just Dix, it's 13 miles and 3600 feet.  I then put in general descriptions of what we're facing (steep slides going up Dix and down Grace, there's a really steep descent off of the Beckhorn, and a rock scramble going  down/up South on the way to/from Macomb).  

I then looked at the weather when it first became available (this mountain has 10 days via Mountain Forecast).  I don't trust it, but I get a general idea what we may be facing.  The temps and amount of precipitation though is highly unreliable 10 days out.  In this case we're getting about a half foot of snow the week before the hike.  I also looked at the social media for trail reports.  I was happy to see that most of the range has been broken out, and that they broke feet of snow.  Of course, the route up Dix I am planning had no reports.  So I now expect that we will be breaking significant snowfall for at least the last mile up Dix.  This means it's going to be slow going.

Today is Tuesday, so I'm checking the weather 2 or 3 times a day.  I am looking to see how Mountain Forecast base temp compares to the other sites and adjust the temps accordingly.  I am looking to see how much snow we're expected to get.  Come Wednesday, I'll post a weather update and temper expectations that we may not get all 5, but I want to push to get Hough if possible.  Friday, I'll put a final weather update with what the realistic expectations should be, and ask for people to commit by the time I wake up.  Then, Saturday, I'll get the list of those to expect together, and check for last minute additions/cancellations, and head to the trailhead.